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Backtesting Result for 2021 Q4 targeted portfolio

  • Writer: Shengyi Jiang
    Shengyi Jiang
  • Sep 2, 2021
  • 3 min read

Updated: Oct 1, 2021

The targeted portfolio is backtested against Vanguard Balanced Index as benchmark and has shown to deliver a 9.01% higher return against benchmark in the first 3 quarters of 2021.



Metric

​RF Portfolio

Vanguard Balanced Index Inv

​Start Balance

$1,000,000.00

$1,000,000.00

End Balance

$6,187,909.91

$3,229,024.21

​End Balance (inflation adjusted)

$4,894,725.95

$2,554,204.70

CAGR

16.91%

10.57%

CAGR (inflation adjusted)

14.58%

8.37%

Stdev

14.78%

8.49%

Best Year

36.06%

21.67%

Worst Year

-1.23%

-2.97%

Max. Drawdown

-17.47%

-12.34%

Sharpe Ratio

1.10

1.17

Sortino Ratio

1.92

1.99

US Stock Market Correlation

0.97

0.99


*Results based on historical returns. Expected return is the annualized monthly arithmetic mean return


The Markets Overview


The 12-month reporting period as of September 31, 2021 reflected a period of adaptation and Recovery, as the global economy dealt with the impacts of the coronavirus (or “COVID-19”) pandemic. For April 2020 , stocks were near their lowest point since the beginning of the pandemic. However, a steady recovery began, as we learned to adapt to life with the virus. Equity prices continued to rise throughout the last quarter of 2020, fed by strong fiscal and monetary support and improving economic indicators. Many equity indices neared or surpassed all-time highs in the reporting period following the implementation of mass vaccination campaigns and passage of an additional $1.9 trillion of fiscal stimulus. In the United States, both large- and small-capitalization stocks posted a significant advance. International equities also advanced as both developed countries and emerging markets rebounded. Also, we see U.S. and Asian equities outside of Japan benefiting from structural growth trends in technology, while emerging markets should be particularly helped by a vaccine-led economic expansion.

We believe that while coronavirus-related disruptions was clearly detrimental to worldwide economic growth, the global expansion will continue to grow as vaccination efforts accelerate and consumer demands rise up.

Overall, we favor a risk neutral strategy, with an overweight in equities and a Focus on Technology Sector.


Principal Investment Strategies


Our advisors use quantitative approaches to select a broadly diversified group of stocks that, as a whole, with investment characteristics of large-and mid-capitalization U.S. equities that exhibit growth characteristics similar to those of the S&P 900 Growth Index but are expected to provide a higher total return than that of the Index. At least 65% (and typically more than 90%) of the Fund’s assets will be invested in stocks that are included in the Index. Most of the stocks held by the Fund provide dividend income as well as the potential for capital appreciation.


Principal Risks

An investment in the Fund could lose money over short or long periods of time. You should expect the Fund’s share price and total return to fluctuate within a wide range.

The Fund is subject to the following risks, which could affect the Fund’s performance:

• Stock market risk, which is the chance that stock prices overall will decline. Stock markets tend to move in cycles, with periods of rising prices and periods of falling prices.

• Investment style risk, which is the chance that returns from large-capitalization stocks in which the Fund invests will trail returns from the overall stock market. Large-cap stocks tend to go through cycles of doing better—or worse—than other segments of the stock market or the stock market in general. These periods have, in the past, lasted for as long as several years.

• Manager risk, which is the chance that poor security selection will cause the Fund to underperform relevant benchmarks or other funds with a similar investment objective. In addition, significant investment in the information technology sector subjects the Fund to proportionately higher exposure to the risks of this sector. 3 An investment in the Fund is not a deposit of a bank and is not insured or guaranteed by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation or any other government agencies.

 
 
 

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